x402-factory
Blended event probability across Kalshi and Polymarket for one market — Liquidity-weighted blend of venue implied probabilities for a canonical market slug, with per-venue detail, cross-venue divergence, and the last 1h move. Resolved markets return 410 RESOLVED with the outcome. Find slugs via /v1/probability/search.
SearchLiveeip155:8453Exactvia cdp
PredictionProbabilityKalshiPolymarket
Calls · 30d
1↓ 13%
This endpoint's own trailing-30-day call count, as published by the upstream catalog and snapshotted daily. 30 snapshots so far.
$21.68
Verified settled volume
946 settlements proven x402 by their on-chain EIP-3009 marker.
$0.020
Listed price
As published in the catalog. Always read the live 402 before paying.
1
Calls · 30d
Upstream's own call count for this endpoint, not ours.
1
Unique payers · 30d
Last called 2026-09-01 13:21Z
—
Upstream on-chain volume
Reported by the source catalog.
Paid to
0xCc42Ed39a06b6cF3f484307eF76B88Bf56Fb305fThe wallet the 402 directs payment to. Its whole payment record — every payer, every chain — is on the merchant page.
Asset 0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913
Provider
The payTo wallet does not resolve to a registered ERC-8004 agent. That is not a verdict on the service — most of the catalog is unregistered.
Live 402 challenge
Captured by the enrichment pass, not read just now. Prices can change — always read the 402 the endpoint answers with.
{
"error": "Payment required",
"accepts": [
{
"asset": "0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913",
"extra": {
"name": "USD Coin",
"version": "2"
},
"payTo": "0xCc42Ed39a06b6cF3f484307eF76B88Bf56Fb305f",
"amount": "20000",
"scheme": "exact",
"network": "eip155:8453",
"maxTimeoutSeconds": 120
}
],
"resource": {
"url": "https://x402-factory.com/v1/probability/fed-rate-cut-2026-09",
"tags": [
"prediction",
"probability",
"kalshi",
"polymarket"
],
"mimeType": "application/json",
"description": "Blended event probability across Kalshi and Polymarket for one market — Liquidity-weighted blend of venue implied probabilities for a canonical market slug, with per-venue detail, cross-venue divergence, and the last 1h move. Resolved markets return 410 RESOLVED with the outcome. Find slugs via /v1/probability/search.",
"serviceName": "x402-factory"
},
"extensions": {
"bazaar": {
"info": {
"input": {
"type": "http",
"method": "GET",
"pathParams": {
"slug": ":slug"
},
"queryParams": {}
},
"output": {
"type": "json",
"example": {
"data": {
"slug": "fed-rate-cut-2026-09",
"category": "economics",
"question": "Will the Fed cut rates at the September 2026 FOMC meeting?",
"per_venue": [
{
"venue": "kalshi",
"implied_p": 0.7359,
"market_id": "KXFEDRATECUT2026",
"volume_24h_usd": 204455.43,
"liquidity_score": 0.947
},
{
"venue": "polymarket",
"implied_p": 0.7264,
"market_id": "fed-rate-cut-2026-09",
"volume_24h_usd": 249729.17,
"liquidity_score": 0.98
}
],
"divergence": 0.0095,
"probability": 0.7301,
"last_move_1h": -0.001,
"resolution_date": "2026-09-16",
"resolution_criteria_summary": "Resolves YES if the target range upper bound is lowered at the Sep 15–16 meeting."
},
"meta": {
"docs": "https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.get",
"sources": [
"kalshi",
"polymarket"
],
"version": "1.0.0",
"endpoint": "/v1/probability/{slug}",
"data_mode": "live",
"freshness": "realtime",
"request_id": "req_00000000",
"generated_at": "2026-09-13T09:52:16.186Z"
}
}
}
},
"schema": {
"type": "object",
"$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
"required": [
"input"
],
"properties": {
"input": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"type",
"method"
],
"properties": {
"type": {
"type": "string",
"const": "http"
},
"method": {
"enum": [
"GET"
],
"type": "string"
},
"pathParams": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"slug"
],
"properties": {
"slug": {
"type": "string",
"pattern": "^[a-z0-9]+(?:-[a-z0-9]+)*$"
}
}
},
"queryParams": {
"type": "object",
"required": [],
"properties": {
"venue": {
"enum": [
"kalshi",
"polymarket",
"blend"
],
"type": "string",
"default": "blend"
}
}
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
},
"output": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"type"
],
"properties": {
"type": {
"type": "string"
},
"example": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"data",
"meta"
],
"properties": {
"data": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"slug",
"question",
"probability",
"per_venue",
"divergence",
"category",
"resolution_date",
"resolution_criteria_summary",
"last_move_1h"
],
"properties": {
"slug": {
"type": "string"
},
"category": {
"type": "string"
},
"question": {
"type": "string"
},
"per_venue": {
"type": "array",
"items": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"venue",
"market_id",
"implied_p",
"volume_24h_usd",
"liquidity_score"
],
"properties": {
"venue": {
"enum": [
"kalshi",
"polymarket"
],
"type": "string"
},
"implied_p": {
"type": "number",
"maximum": 1,
"minimum": 0
},
"market_id": {
"type": "string"
},
"volume_24h_usd": {
"type": "number"
},
"liquidity_score": {
"type": "number",
"maximum": 1,
"minimum": 0
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
}
},
"divergence": {
"type": "number",
"maximum": 1,
"minimum": 0
},
"probability": {
"type": "number",
"maximum": 1,
"minimum": 0
},
"last_move_1h": {
"type": "number"
},
"resolution_date": {
"type": "string"
},
"resolution_criteria_summary": {
"type": "string"
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
},
"meta": {
"type": "object"
}
}
}
}
}
}
},
"routeTemplate": "/v1/probability/:slug"
}
},
"x402Version": 2
}Accepts
The payment requirements as published to the catalog. Read the live 402 before paying — a price here is a claim, not a quote.
0.02USDC≈ $0.02 USD
on Base · exact scheme
Pay 0.02 USDC on Base to 0xCc42…b305f. The signed payment is good for 2 minutes.
- Paid to
- 0xCc42…b305f
- USD Coin contract
- 0x8335…02913
- Payment window
- 2 minutes
- As published
- 20000 smallest units
The catalog’s raw entry
[
{
"asset": "0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913",
"extra": {
"name": "USD Coin",
"version": "2"
},
"payTo": "0xCc42Ed39a06b6cF3f484307eF76B88Bf56Fb305f",
"amount": "20000",
"scheme": "exact",
"network": "eip155:8453",
"maxTimeoutSeconds": 120
}
]Extensions
{
"bazaar": {
"info": {
"input": {
"type": "http",
"method": "GET",
"pathParams": {
"slug": "fed-rate-cut-2026-09"
},
"queryParams": {}
},
"output": {
"type": "json",
"example": {
"data": {
"slug": "fed-rate-cut-2026-09",
"category": "economics",
"question": "Will the Fed cut rates at the September 2026 FOMC meeting?",
"per_venue": [
{
"venue": "kalshi",
"implied_p": 0.7359,
"market_id": "KXFEDRATECUT2026",
"volume_24h_usd": 204455.43,
"liquidity_score": 0.947
},
{
"venue": "polymarket",
"implied_p": 0.7264,
"market_id": "fed-rate-cut-2026-09",
"volume_24h_usd": 249729.17,
"liquidity_score": 0.98
}
],
"divergence": 0.0095,
"probability": 0.7301,
"last_move_1h": -0.001,
"resolution_date": "2026-09-16",
"resolution_criteria_summary": "Resolves YES if the target range upper bound is lowered at the Sep 15–16 meeting."
},
"meta": {
"docs": "https://x402-factory.com/docs/probability.get",
"sources": [
"kalshi",
"polymarket"
],
"version": "1.0.0",
"endpoint": "/v1/probability/{slug}",
"data_mode": "live",
"freshness": "realtime",
"request_id": "req_00000000",
"generated_at": "2026-09-01T09:36:55.050Z"
}
}
}
},
"schema": {
"type": "object",
"$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
"required": [
"input"
],
"properties": {
"input": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"type",
"method"
],
"properties": {
"type": {
"type": "string",
"const": "http"
},
"method": {
"enum": [
"GET"
],
"type": "string"
},
"pathParams": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"slug"
],
"properties": {
"slug": {
"type": "string",
"pattern": "^[a-z0-9]+(?:-[a-z0-9]+)*$"
}
}
},
"queryParams": {
"type": "object",
"required": [],
"properties": {
"venue": {
"enum": [
"kalshi",
"polymarket",
"blend"
],
"type": "string",
"default": "blend"
}
}
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
},
"output": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"type"
],
"properties": {
"type": {
"type": "string"
},
"example": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"data",
"meta"
],
"properties": {
"data": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"slug",
"question",
"probability",
"per_venue",
"divergence",
"category",
"resolution_date",
"resolution_criteria_summary",
"last_move_1h"
],
"properties": {
"slug": {
"type": "string"
},
"category": {
"type": "string"
},
"question": {
"type": "string"
},
"per_venue": {
"type": "array",
"items": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"venue",
"market_id",
"implied_p",
"volume_24h_usd",
"liquidity_score"
],
"properties": {
"venue": {
"enum": [
"kalshi",
"polymarket"
],
"type": "string"
},
"implied_p": {
"type": "number",
"maximum": 1,
"minimum": 0
},
"market_id": {
"type": "string"
},
"volume_24h_usd": {
"type": "number"
},
"liquidity_score": {
"type": "number",
"maximum": 1,
"minimum": 0
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
}
},
"divergence": {
"type": "number",
"maximum": 1,
"minimum": 0
},
"probability": {
"type": "number",
"maximum": 1,
"minimum": 0
},
"last_move_1h": {
"type": "number"
},
"resolution_date": {
"type": "string"
},
"resolution_criteria_summary": {
"type": "string"
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
},
"meta": {
"type": "object"
}
}
}
}
}
}
},
"routeTemplate": "/v1/probability/:slug"
}
}Provenance
- Seen in the source catalog
- 2026-09-01 13:21Z
- Last indexed by Roundhouse
- 2026-09-24 14:20Z
- Last enriched (probe, favicon, geo)
- 2026-09-23 17:15Z
- x402 version
- 2
- Max timeout
- 120s
- Liveness probe
- HTTP 402
Hand this page to an agent
Copy the prompt and paste it into Claude, an MCP client or your own agent — it will vet this service and call it over the free read API. No key, no account.
GET api.roundhouseai.io/v0/endpoints
This endpoint's own trailing-30-day call count, as published by the upstream catalog and snapshotted daily. 30 snapshots so far. Verified volume counts only settlements with an on-chain EIP-3009 marker.
Show the promptHide the prompt
Using Roundhouse, look up the x402 service x402-factory and tell me whether it is worth paying: what a call costs, whether the endpoint answered when last probed, and what its payment record actually shows. curl -s 'https://api.roundhouseai.io/v0/endpoints?q=x402-factory' curl -s 'https://api.roundhouseai.io/v0/merchants/<the payTo wallet returned above>' Then call it: read the price from the live 402 at https://x402-factory.com/v1/probability/:slug, never from a cached figure, and pay with an x402 client. The /v0 API needs an API key (`authorization: Bearer rh_live_…`) on everything except /v0/unified* and /v0/endpoints. Mint a personal key for $0.01 at GET https://api.roundhouseai.io/v0/test/x402, or use an organization key from https://roundhouseai.io/dashboard/team. If you do not have Roundhouse tools or skills installed, read https://roundhouseai.io/skill.md first — it is the whole procedure.