Roundhouse

Portfolio Stats

Kelly criterion fraction for a stated win probability and payoff, with growth rate and overbet threshold. NOT advice.

DataLiveeip155:8453Exactvia cdp
https://portfolio-stats.x402tookit.com/kelly
KellyKelly-criterionEdgeGrowth-rate
Calls · 30d
1
This endpoint's own trailing-30-day call count, as published by the upstream catalog and snapshotted daily. 4 snapshots so far.
$24.31
Verified settled volume
1,175 settlements proven x402 by their on-chain EIP-3009 marker.
$0.020
Listed price
As published in the catalog. Always read the live 402 before paying.
1
Calls · 30d
Upstream's own call count for this endpoint, not ours.
1
Unique payers · 30d
Last called 2026-10-20 20:46Z
—
Upstream on-chain volume
Reported by the source catalog.
Paid to
0xb531320805C5BED1D46AEaDcF4F008FDF172DBDa

The wallet the 402 directs payment to. Its whole payment record — every payer, every chain — is on the merchant page.

Asset 0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913

Provider

The payTo wallet does not resolve to a registered ERC-8004 agent. That is not a verdict on the service — most of the catalog is unregistered.

Live 402 challenge

Captured by the enrichment pass, not read just now. Prices can change — always read the 402 the endpoint answers with.

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      "description": "Kelly criterion fraction for a stated win probability and payoff, with growth rate and overbet threshold. NOT advice.",
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            "Kelly fraction f* = p/a - (1 - p)/b maximises expected log growth for repeated independent bets with exactly these stated odds.",
            "Expected log growth per bet at stake x is p*ln(1 + b*x) + (1 - p)*ln(1 - a*x).",
            "…2 more"
          ],
          "summary": "Stated edge (p 0.6, win 1, lose 1): full Kelly fraction 0.2 of the bankroll; expected log growth 0.02013551355 per bet. Arithmetic only, not advice.",
          "verdict": "KELLY_POSITIVE_EDGE",
          "degraded": false,
          "fullKelly": 0.2,
          "halfKelly": 0.1,
          "disclaimer": "Screening signal computed from the named public source. Not financial, legal or investment advice; provided as is. Verify at the source before acting.",
          "notChecked": [
            "NOT ADVICE: the formula assumes your probability and payoff are exactly right and repeat independently, which is almost never true; small errors in p make full Kelly far too aggressive",
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          "notChecked": [
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          "winProbability": 0.6,
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          "growthRateAtHalfKelly": 0.01504190162,
          "overbetThresholdStake": 0.3893906833,
          "oddsBreakEvenProbability": 0.5,
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            "…2 more"
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          "degraded": false,
          "fullKelly": 0.2,
          "halfKelly": 0.1,
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            "…1 more"
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          "gainFraction": 1,
          "lossFraction": 1,
          "winProbability": 0.6,
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          "growthRateAtHalfKelly": 0.01504190162,
          "overbetThresholdStake": 0.3893906833,
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    "message": "Portfolio Stats has 10 pay-per-call endpoints (Return, risk and drawdown statistics computed on a price or return series that you supply.), from $0.02 a call. See the full menu and send your agents our way.",
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        "url": "https://portfolio-stats.x402tookit.com/max-drawdown",
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        "price": "$0.02"
      },
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        "url": "https://portfolio-stats.x402tookit.com/returns",
        "path": "/returns",
        "what": "Simple and log returns from a price series you supply, with cumulative return. Educationa…",
        "price": "$0.02"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://portfolio-stats.x402tookit.com/rolling",
        "path": "/rolling",
        "what": "Rolling mean return and rolling annualized volatility over a window, from a price or retu…",
        "price": "$0.02"
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}

Accepts

The payment requirements as published to the catalog. Read the live 402 before paying — a price here is a claim, not a quote.

0.02USDC≈ $0.02 USD
on Base · exact scheme

Pay 0.02 USDC on Base to 0xb531…2DBDa. The signed payment is good for 5 minutes.

Paid to
0xb531…2DBDa
USD Coin contract
0x8335…02913
Payment window
5 minutes
As published
20000 smallest units
20000units
on solana:5eykt4UsFv8P8NJdTREpY1vzqKqZKvdp · exact scheme

That figure is in the token’s smallest units. Roundhouse does not hold this contract’s decimals, so it is shown as published rather than converted.

Paid to
DUPiup…eEm8s
Token contract
EPjFWd…TDt1v
Payment window
5 minutes
20000units
on Polygon · exact scheme

That figure is in the token’s smallest units. Roundhouse does not hold this contract’s decimals, so it is shown as published rather than converted.

Paid to
0xb531…2DBDa
Token contract
0x3c49…c3359
Payment window
5 minutes
20000units
on Arbitrum · exact scheme

That figure is in the token’s smallest units. Roundhouse does not hold this contract’s decimals, so it is shown as published rather than converted.

Paid to
0xb531…2DBDa
Token contract
0xaf88…e5831
Payment window
5 minutes
The catalog’s raw entry
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Extensions

{
  "bazaar": {
    "info": {
      "input": {
        "type": "http",
        "method": "GET",
        "queryParams": {
          "b": 1,
          "p": 0.6
        }
      },
      "output": {
        "type": "json",
        "example": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-12T00:57:39.833Z",
          "source": "computed locally",
          "reasons": [
            "Kelly fraction f* = p/a - (1 - p)/b maximises expected log growth for repeated independent bets with exactly these stated odds.",
            "Expected log growth per bet at stake x is p*ln(1 + b*x) + (1 - p)*ln(1 - a*x).",
            "…2 more"
          ],
          "summary": "Stated edge (p 0.6, win 1, lose 1): full Kelly fraction 0.2 of the bankroll; expected log growth 0.02013551355 per bet. Arithmetic only, not advice.",
          "verdict": "KELLY_POSITIVE_EDGE",
          "degraded": false,
          "fullKelly": 0.2,
          "halfKelly": 0.1,
          "disclaimer": "Screening signal computed from the named public source. Not financial, legal or investment advice; provided as is. Verify at the source before acting.",
          "notChecked": [
            "NOT ADVICE: the formula assumes your probability and payoff are exactly right and repeat independently, which is almost never true; small errors in p make full Kelly far too aggressive",
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            "…1 more"
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          "growthRateAtKelly": 0.02013551355,
          "growthRateAtHalfKelly": 0.01504190162,
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          "oddsBreakEvenProbability": 0.5,
          "expectedValuePerUnitStaked": 0.2
        }
      }
    },
    "schema": {
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      "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
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          "properties": {
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              "const": "http"
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            "method": {
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                "GET"
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              "type": "string"
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            "queryParams": {
              "type": "object",
              "required": [
                "p",
                "b"
              ],
              "properties": {
                "a": {
                  "type": "number",
                  "description": "Loss on a loss as a fraction of the stake, above 0 and at most 1 (default 1 = lose the whole stake)"
                },
                "b": {
                  "type": "number",
                  "description": "Gain on a win as a fraction of the stake (1 = even money, 2 = win twice the stake)"
                },
                "p": {
                  "type": "number",
                  "description": "Win probability you state, between 0 and 1 (exclusive)"
                },
                "fractionOfKelly": {
                  "type": "number",
                  "description": "Optional multiple of full Kelly to also report, above 0 and at most 1 (0.5 = half Kelly)"
                }
              }
            }
          },
          "additionalProperties": false
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                "fullKelly": {
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                    "number"
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                    "null",
                    "number"
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                "disclaimer": {
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                    "string"
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                },
                "notChecked": {
                  "type": [
                    "array",
                    "null"
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                  "items": {
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                  }
                },
                "formulaValue": {
                  "type": [
                    "null",
                    "number"
                  ]
                },
                "gainFraction": {
                  "type": [
                    "null",
                    "number"
                  ]
                },
                "lossFraction": {
                  "type": [
                    "null",
                    "number"
                  ]
                },
                "winProbability": {
                  "type": [
                    "null",
                    "number"
                  ]
                },
                "educationalOnly": {
                  "type": [
                    "null",
                    "string"
                  ]
                },
                "growthRateAtKelly": {
                  "type": [
                    "null",
                    "number"
                  ]
                },
                "growthRateAtHalfKelly": {
                  "type": [
                    "null",
                    "number"
                  ]
                },
                "overbetThresholdStake": {
                  "type": [
                    "null",
                    "number"
                  ]
                },
                "oddsBreakEvenProbability": {
                  "type": [
                    "null",
                    "number"
                  ]
                },
                "expectedValuePerUnitStaked": {
                  "type": [
                    "null",
                    "number"
                  ]
                }
              }
            }
          }
        }
      }
    }
  }
}

Provenance

Seen in the source catalog
2026-10-20 20:46Z
Last indexed by Roundhouse
2026-10-22 12:40Z
Last enriched (probe, favicon, geo)
2026-10-21 00:15Z
x402 version
2
Max timeout
300s
Liveness probe
HTTP 402
Report

Hand this page to an agent

Copy the prompt and paste it into Claude, an MCP client or your own agent — it will vet this service and call it over the free read API. No key, no account.

GET api.roundhouseai.io/v0/endpoints

This endpoint's own trailing-30-day call count, as published by the upstream catalog and snapshotted daily. 4 snapshots so far. Verified volume counts only settlements with an on-chain EIP-3009 marker.

Open skill.md
Show the prompt
Using Roundhouse, look up the x402 service Portfolio Stats and tell me whether it is
worth paying: what a call costs, whether the endpoint answered when last probed, and what
its payment record actually shows.

curl -s 'https://api.roundhouseai.io/v0/endpoints?q=Portfolio%20Stats'
curl -s 'https://api.roundhouseai.io/v0/merchants/<the payTo wallet returned above>'

Then call it: read the price from the live 402 at https://portfolio-stats.x402tookit.com/kelly, never from
a cached figure, and pay with an x402 client.

The /v0 API needs an API key (`authorization: Bearer rh_live_…`) on everything except
/v0/unified* and /v0/endpoints. Either pay over x402 (mint a personal key for $0.01 at
GET https://api.roundhouseai.io/v0/test/x402), or ask me for an organization key, which I create at
https://roundhouseai.io/dashboard/connections. If you have neither, ask before going further.

If you do not have Roundhouse tools or skills installed, read
https://roundhouseai.io/skill.md first — it is the whole procedure.