Probability Calculators
Expected value, variance, standard deviation and chance of profit for a list of payoffs with probabilities or weights.
OtherLiveeip155:8453Exactvia cdp
Expected-valueVariancePayoffProbability
Calls · 30d
1
This endpoint's own trailing-30-day call count, as published by the upstream catalog and snapshotted daily. 4 snapshots so far.
$24.31
Verified settled volume
1,175 settlements proven x402 by their on-chain EIP-3009 marker.
$0.020
Listed price
As published in the catalog. Always read the live 402 before paying.
1
Calls · 30d
Upstream's own call count for this endpoint, not ours.
1
Unique payers · 30d
Last called 2026-10-20 20:47Z
—
Upstream on-chain volume
Reported by the source catalog.
Paid to
0xb531320805C5BED1D46AEaDcF4F008FDF172DBDaThe wallet the 402 directs payment to. Its whole payment record — every payer, every chain — is on the merchant page.
Asset 0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913
Provider
The payTo wallet does not resolve to a registered ERC-8004 agent. That is not a verdict on the service — most of the catalog is unregistered.
Live 402 challenge
Captured by the enrichment pass, not read just now. Prices can change — always read the 402 the endpoint answers with.
{
"error": "Payment required",
"accepts": [
{
"asset": "0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913",
"extra": {
"name": "USD Coin",
"version": "2"
},
"payTo": "0xb531320805C5BED1D46AEaDcF4F008FDF172DBDa",
"scheme": "exact",
"network": "base",
"mimeType": "application/json",
"resource": "https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/expected-value",
"description": "Expected value, variance, standard deviation and chance of profit for a list of payoffs with probabilities or weights.",
"outputSchema": {
"input": {
"type": "http",
"method": "GET",
"queryParams": {
"outcomes": "35:1,-1:37",
"normalize": "true"
}
},
"output": {
"asOf": "2026-10-11T14:44:17.888Z",
"source": "computed locally",
"reasons": [
"EV = sum of payoff x probability; variance = sum of (payoff - EV)^2 x probability.",
"Over many plays you lose about 0.0526 per play on average; short runs can still win."
],
"summary": "Expected value -0.052632 per play; standard deviation 5.7626; chance of a positive result 2.63%.",
"verdict": "NEGATIVE_EXPECTATION",
"degraded": false,
"outcomes": [
{
"payoff": 35,
"probability": 0.02631578947368421
},
{
"payoff": -1,
"probability": 0.9736842105263158
}
],
"variance": 33.20775623268698,
"disclaimer": "Screening signal computed from the named public source. Not financial, legal or investment advice; provided as is. Verify at the source before acting.",
"notChecked": [
"utility or risk preference: a positive expected value does not make a bet advisable (Kelly, ruin and variance matter)",
"the accuracy of the probabilities you supplied",
"…1 more"
],
"bestOutcome": {
"payoff": 35,
"probability": 0.02631578947368421
},
"costApplied": 0,
"worstOutcome": {
"payoff": -1,
"probability": 0.9736842105263158
},
"breakEvenCost": -0.052631578947368474,
"expectedValue": -0.052631578947368474,
"probabilityLoss": 0.9736842105263158,
"standardDeviation": 5.762617133966734,
"probabilityPositive": 0.02631578947368421
}
},
"maxAmountRequired": "20000",
"maxTimeoutSeconds": 300
},
{
"asset": "EPjFWdd5AufqSSqeM2qN1xzybapC8G4wEGGkZwyTDt1v",
"extra": {
"feePayer": "BFK9TLC3edb13K6v4YyH3DwPb5DSUpkWvb7XnqCL9b4F"
},
"payTo": "DUPiupXtuox38dcGoXUKer5mAydCzmaHjrbQ66qeEm8s",
"scheme": "exact",
"network": "solana",
"mimeType": "application/json",
"resource": "https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/expected-value",
"description": "Expected value, variance, standard deviation and chance of profit for a list of payoffs with probabilities or weights.",
"outputSchema": {
"input": {
"type": "http",
"method": "GET",
"queryParams": {
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}
},
"output": {
"asOf": "2026-10-11T14:44:17.888Z",
"source": "computed locally",
"reasons": [
"EV = sum of payoff x probability; variance = sum of (payoff - EV)^2 x probability.",
"Over many plays you lose about 0.0526 per play on average; short runs can still win."
],
"summary": "Expected value -0.052632 per play; standard deviation 5.7626; chance of a positive result 2.63%.",
"verdict": "NEGATIVE_EXPECTATION",
"degraded": false,
"outcomes": [
{
"payoff": 35,
"probability": 0.02631578947368421
},
{
"payoff": -1,
"probability": 0.9736842105263158
}
],
"variance": 33.20775623268698,
"disclaimer": "Screening signal computed from the named public source. Not financial, legal or investment advice; provided as is. Verify at the source before acting.",
"notChecked": [
"utility or risk preference: a positive expected value does not make a bet advisable (Kelly, ruin and variance matter)",
"the accuracy of the probabilities you supplied",
"…1 more"
],
"bestOutcome": {
"payoff": 35,
"probability": 0.02631578947368421
},
"costApplied": 0,
"worstOutcome": {
"payoff": -1,
"probability": 0.9736842105263158
},
"breakEvenCost": -0.052631578947368474,
"expectedValue": -0.052631578947368474,
"probabilityLoss": 0.9736842105263158,
"standardDeviation": 5.762617133966734,
"probabilityPositive": 0.02631578947368421
}
},
"maxAmountRequired": "20000",
"maxTimeoutSeconds": 300
},
{
"asset": "0x3c499c542cEF5E3811e1192ce70d8cC03d5c3359",
"extra": {
"name": "USD Coin",
"version": "2"
},
"payTo": "0xb531320805C5BED1D46AEaDcF4F008FDF172DBDa",
"scheme": "exact",
"network": "polygon",
"mimeType": "application/json",
"resource": "https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/expected-value",
"description": "Expected value, variance, standard deviation and chance of profit for a list of payoffs with probabilities or weights.",
"outputSchema": {
"input": {
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"method": "GET",
"queryParams": {
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"normalize": "true"
}
},
"output": {
"asOf": "2026-10-11T14:44:17.888Z",
"source": "computed locally",
"reasons": [
"EV = sum of payoff x probability; variance = sum of (payoff - EV)^2 x probability.",
"Over many plays you lose about 0.0526 per play on average; short runs can still win."
],
"summary": "Expected value -0.052632 per play; standard deviation 5.7626; chance of a positive result 2.63%.",
"verdict": "NEGATIVE_EXPECTATION",
"degraded": false,
"outcomes": [
{
"payoff": 35,
"probability": 0.02631578947368421
},
{
"payoff": -1,
"probability": 0.9736842105263158
}
],
"variance": 33.20775623268698,
"disclaimer": "Screening signal computed from the named public source. Not financial, legal or investment advice; provided as is. Verify at the source before acting.",
"notChecked": [
"utility or risk preference: a positive expected value does not make a bet advisable (Kelly, ruin and variance matter)",
"the accuracy of the probabilities you supplied",
"…1 more"
],
"bestOutcome": {
"payoff": 35,
"probability": 0.02631578947368421
},
"costApplied": 0,
"worstOutcome": {
"payoff": -1,
"probability": 0.9736842105263158
},
"breakEvenCost": -0.052631578947368474,
"expectedValue": -0.052631578947368474,
"probabilityLoss": 0.9736842105263158,
"standardDeviation": 5.762617133966734,
"probabilityPositive": 0.02631578947368421
}
},
"maxAmountRequired": "20000",
"maxTimeoutSeconds": 300
}
],
"x402Version": 1,
"alsoAvailable": {
"llms": "https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/llms.txt",
"catalog": "https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/catalog",
"message": "Probability Calculators has 10 pay-per-call endpoints (Dice, card and lottery odds, multinomials, expected value, exact distribution tables, gambler's ruin, Bayes and streaks.), from $0.02 a call. See the full menu and send your agents our way.",
"openapi": "https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/openapi.json",
"related": [
{
"url": "https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/gamblers-ruin",
"path": "/gamblers-ruin",
"what": "Gambler's ruin: probability of going broke before hitting a target, and expected number o…",
"price": "$0.02"
},
{
"url": "https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/multinomial",
"path": "/multinomial",
"what": "Multinomial coefficient (arrangements of repeated items like MISSISSIPPI) and multinomial…",
"price": "$0.02"
},
{
"url": "https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/streak-odds",
"path": "/streak-odds",
"what": "Chance of a run: r successes in a row (or r identical outcomes) somewhere in n independen…",
"price": "$0.02"
}
]
}
}Accepts
The payment requirements as published to the catalog. Read the live 402 before paying — a price here is a claim, not a quote.
0.02USDC≈ $0.02 USD
on Base · exact scheme
Pay 0.02 USDC on Base to 0xb531…2DBDa. The signed payment is good for 5 minutes.
- Paid to
- 0xb531…2DBDa
- USD Coin contract
- 0x8335…02913
- Payment window
- 5 minutes
- As published
- 20000 smallest units
20000units
on solana:5eykt4UsFv8P8NJdTREpY1vzqKqZKvdp · exact scheme
That figure is in the token’s smallest units. Roundhouse does not hold this contract’s decimals, so it is shown as published rather than converted.
- Paid to
- DUPiup…eEm8s
- Token contract
- EPjFWd…TDt1v
- Payment window
- 5 minutes
20000units
on Polygon · exact scheme
That figure is in the token’s smallest units. Roundhouse does not hold this contract’s decimals, so it is shown as published rather than converted.
- Paid to
- 0xb531…2DBDa
- Token contract
- 0x3c49…c3359
- Payment window
- 5 minutes
20000units
on Arbitrum · exact scheme
That figure is in the token’s smallest units. Roundhouse does not hold this contract’s decimals, so it is shown as published rather than converted.
- Paid to
- 0xb531…2DBDa
- Token contract
- 0xaf88…e5831
- Payment window
- 5 minutes
The catalog’s raw entry
[
{
"asset": "0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913",
"extra": {
"name": "USD Coin",
"version": "2"
},
"payTo": "0xb531320805C5BED1D46AEaDcF4F008FDF172DBDa",
"amount": "20000",
"scheme": "exact",
"network": "eip155:8453",
"maxTimeoutSeconds": 300
},
{
"asset": "EPjFWdd5AufqSSqeM2qN1xzybapC8G4wEGGkZwyTDt1v",
"extra": {
"feePayer": "D6ZhtNQ5nT9ZnTHUbqXZsTx5MH2rPFiBBggX4hY1WePM"
},
"payTo": "DUPiupXtuox38dcGoXUKer5mAydCzmaHjrbQ66qeEm8s",
"amount": "20000",
"scheme": "exact",
"network": "solana:5eykt4UsFv8P8NJdTREpY1vzqKqZKvdp",
"maxTimeoutSeconds": 300
},
{
"asset": "0x3c499c542cEF5E3811e1192ce70d8cC03d5c3359",
"extra": {
"name": "USD Coin",
"version": "2"
},
"payTo": "0xb531320805C5BED1D46AEaDcF4F008FDF172DBDa",
"amount": "20000",
"scheme": "exact",
"network": "eip155:137",
"maxTimeoutSeconds": 300
},
{
"asset": "0xaf88d065e77c8cC2239327C5EDb3A432268e5831",
"extra": {
"name": "USD Coin",
"version": "2"
},
"payTo": "0xb531320805C5BED1D46AEaDcF4F008FDF172DBDa",
"amount": "20000",
"scheme": "exact",
"network": "eip155:42161",
"maxTimeoutSeconds": 300
}
]Extensions
{
"bazaar": {
"info": {
"input": {
"type": "http",
"method": "GET",
"queryParams": {
"outcomes": "35:1,-1:37",
"normalize": "true"
}
},
"output": {
"type": "json",
"example": {
"asOf": "2026-10-11T14:44:17.888Z",
"source": "computed locally",
"reasons": [
"EV = sum of payoff x probability; variance = sum of (payoff - EV)^2 x probability.",
"Over many plays you lose about 0.0526 per play on average; short runs can still win."
],
"summary": "Expected value -0.052632 per play; standard deviation 5.7626; chance of a positive result 2.63%.",
"verdict": "NEGATIVE_EXPECTATION",
"degraded": false,
"outcomes": [
{
"payoff": 35,
"probability": 0.02631578947368421
},
{
"payoff": -1,
"probability": 0.9736842105263158
}
],
"variance": 33.20775623268698,
"disclaimer": "Screening signal computed from the named public source. Not financial, legal or investment advice; provided as is. Verify at the source before acting.",
"notChecked": [
"utility or risk preference: a positive expected value does not make a bet advisable (Kelly, ruin and variance matter)",
"the accuracy of the probabilities you supplied",
"…1 more"
],
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},
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"payoff": -1,
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},
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"probabilityLoss": 0.9736842105263158,
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}
}
},
"schema": {
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"$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
"required": [
"input"
],
"properties": {
"input": {
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"required": [
"type",
"method"
],
"properties": {
"type": {
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"const": "http"
},
"method": {
"enum": [
"GET"
],
"type": "string"
},
"queryParams": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"outcomes"
],
"properties": {
"cost": {
"type": "number",
"description": "Optional price paid to play, subtracted from every payoff"
},
"outcomes": {
"type": "string",
"description": "payoff:probability pairs, comma separated: 35:0.0263158,-1:0.9736842 (roulette straight-up, net of stake)"
},
"normalize": {
"type": "string",
"description": "true to treat the numbers after the colon as weights and scale them to sum to 1"
}
}
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
},
"output": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"type"
],
"properties": {
"type": {
"type": "string"
},
"example": {
"type": "object",
"properties": {
"asOf": {
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"null",
"string"
]
},
"source": {
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"null",
"string"
]
},
"reasons": {
"type": [
"array",
"null"
],
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}
},
"summary": {
"type": [
"null",
"string"
]
},
"verdict": {
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]
},
"degraded": {
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"null"
]
},
"outcomes": {
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"array",
"null"
],
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"null",
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},
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"null",
"number"
]
}
}
}
},
"variance": {
"type": [
"null",
"number"
]
},
"disclaimer": {
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"null",
"string"
]
},
"notChecked": {
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"array",
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],
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}
},
"bestOutcome": {
"type": [
"null",
"object"
],
"properties": {
"payoff": {
"type": [
"null",
"number"
]
},
"probability": {
"type": [
"null",
"number"
]
}
}
},
"costApplied": {
"type": [
"null",
"number"
]
},
"worstOutcome": {
"type": [
"null",
"object"
],
"properties": {
"payoff": {
"type": [
"null",
"number"
]
},
"probability": {
"type": [
"null",
"number"
]
}
}
},
"breakEvenCost": {
"type": [
"null",
"number"
]
},
"expectedValue": {
"type": [
"null",
"number"
]
},
"probabilityLoss": {
"type": [
"null",
"number"
]
},
"standardDeviation": {
"type": [
"null",
"number"
]
},
"probabilityPositive": {
"type": [
"null",
"number"
]
}
}
}
}
}
}
}
}
}Provenance
- Seen in the source catalog
- 2026-10-20 20:47Z
- Last indexed by Roundhouse
- 2026-10-22 06:50Z
- Last enriched (probe, favicon, geo)
- 2026-10-20 23:45Z
- x402 version
- 2
- Max timeout
- 300s
- Liveness probe
- HTTP 402
Hand this page to an agent
Copy the prompt and paste it into Claude, an MCP client or your own agent — it will vet this service and call it over the free read API. No key, no account.
GET api.roundhouseai.io/v0/endpoints
This endpoint's own trailing-30-day call count, as published by the upstream catalog and snapshotted daily. 4 snapshots so far. Verified volume counts only settlements with an on-chain EIP-3009 marker.
Show the promptHide the prompt
Using Roundhouse, look up the x402 service Probability Calculators and tell me whether it is worth paying: what a call costs, whether the endpoint answered when last probed, and what its payment record actually shows. curl -s 'https://api.roundhouseai.io/v0/endpoints?q=Probability%20Calculators' curl -s 'https://api.roundhouseai.io/v0/merchants/<the payTo wallet returned above>' Then call it: read the price from the live 402 at https://probability-calc.x402tookit.com/expected-value, never from a cached figure, and pay with an x402 client. The /v0 API needs an API key (`authorization: Bearer rh_live_…`) on everything except /v0/unified* and /v0/endpoints. Either pay over x402 (mint a personal key for $0.01 at GET https://api.roundhouseai.io/v0/test/x402), or ask me for an organization key, which I create at https://roundhouseai.io/dashboard/connections. If you have neither, ask before going further. If you do not have Roundhouse tools or skills installed, read https://roundhouseai.io/skill.md first — it is the whole procedure.