Saylor Innovations Data Desk
Trading edge from win rate and average win and loss: expectancy, profit factor, breakeven win rate, Kelly fraction and expected losing streaks.
DataUnknowneip155:8453Exactvia facilitator:payAI
Trading expectancy calculatorBreakeven win rateProfit factor from win rateDo i have an edgeLongest losing streak
Calls · 30d
1
This endpoint's own trailing-30-day call count, as published by the upstream catalog and snapshotted daily. 9 snapshots so far.
$15.76
Verified settled volume
1,657 settlements proven x402 by their on-chain EIP-3009 marker.
$0.010
Listed price
As published in the catalog. Always read the live 402 before paying.
—
Calls · 30d
Upstream's own call count for this endpoint, not ours.
—
Unique payers · 30d
Never called
—
Upstream on-chain volume
Reported by the source catalog.
Paid to
0xA2A8dF0f7CaaBEa4e120a2568118f141569fc8aaThe wallet the 402 directs payment to. Its whole payment record — every payer, every chain — is on the merchant page.
Asset 0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913
Provider
The payTo wallet does not resolve to a registered ERC-8004 agent. That is not a verdict on the service — most of the catalog is unregistered.
Accepts
The payment requirements as published to the catalog. Read the live 402 before paying — a price here is a claim, not a quote.
0.01USDC≈ $0.01 USD
on Base · exact scheme
Pay 0.01 USDC on Base to 0xA2A8…fc8aa. The signed payment is good for 2 minutes.
- Paid to
- 0xA2A8…fc8aa
- USD Coin contract
- 0x8335…02913
- Payment window
- 2 minutes
- As published
- 10000 smallest units
The catalog’s raw entry
[
{
"asset": "0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913",
"extra": {
"memo": "saylor:datadesk:trade-expectancy",
"name": "USD Coin",
"version": "2",
"facilitatorOnly": true,
"assetTransferMethod": "eip3009"
},
"payTo": "0xA2A8dF0f7CaaBEa4e120a2568118f141569fc8aa",
"amount": "10000",
"scheme": "exact",
"network": "eip155:8453",
"maxTimeoutSeconds": 120
}
]Extensions
{
"bazaar": {
"info": {
"input": {
"type": "http",
"method": "GET",
"queryParams": {
"trades": "200",
"avg_win": "300",
"avg_loss": "150",
"win_rate_percent": "45"
}
},
"output": {
"type": "json",
"example": {
"note": "Expectancy is the average result per trade if past win rate and payoffs persist. The expected longest losing streak is an approximation for independent trades. Never size at full Kelly.",
"source": "Trading expectancy and Kelly criterion arithmetic",
"trades": 200,
"avg_win": 300,
"avg_loss": 150,
"has_edge": true,
"profit_factor": 1.6364,
"reward_to_risk": 2,
"expectancy_in_r": 0.35,
"win_rate_percent": 45,
"half_kelly_percent": 8.75,
"expectancy_per_trade": 52.5,
"kelly_fraction_percent": 17.5,
"breakeven_win_rate_percent": 33.333,
"expected_profit_over_trades": 10500,
"expected_longest_losing_streak": 7.5,
"probability_of_5_losses_in_a_row_percent": 5.0328
}
}
},
"schema": {
"type": "object",
"$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
"required": [
"input"
],
"properties": {
"input": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"type",
"method"
],
"properties": {
"type": {
"type": "string",
"const": "http"
},
"method": {
"enum": [
"GET"
],
"type": "string"
},
"queryParams": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"avg_loss",
"avg_win",
"win_rate_percent"
],
"properties": {
"trades": {
"type": "string",
"description": "optional number of trades to project, default 100"
},
"avg_win": {
"type": "string",
"description": "average winning trade"
},
"avg_loss": {
"type": "string",
"description": "average losing trade as a positive number"
},
"win_rate_percent": {
"type": "string",
"description": "share of winning trades"
}
}
}
},
"additionalProperties": false
},
"output": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"type"
],
"properties": {
"type": {
"type": "string",
"const": "json"
},
"example": {
"type": "object",
"required": [
"expectancy_per_trade",
"has_edge"
],
"properties": {
"note": {
"type": "string",
"description": "Plain-language caveat about how to read and use the result"
},
"source": {
"type": "string",
"description": "Where the data or formula comes from"
},
"trades": {
"type": "number",
"description": "Number of trades projected"
},
"avg_win": {
"type": "number",
"description": "Average winning trade"
},
"avg_loss": {
"type": "number",
"description": "Average losing trade"
},
"has_edge": {
"type": "boolean",
"description": "True when expectancy is positive"
},
"profit_factor": {
"type": [
"number",
"null"
],
"description": "Gross wins divided by gross losses, null if there are no losses"
},
"reward_to_risk": {
"type": "number",
"description": "Average win divided by average loss"
},
"expectancy_in_r": {
"type": "number",
"description": "Expectancy in multiples of the average loss"
},
"win_rate_percent": {
"type": "number",
"description": "Share of winning trades"
},
"half_kelly_percent": {
"type": "number",
"description": "Half of the Kelly fraction, never below zero"
},
"expectancy_per_trade": {
"type": "number",
"description": "Average result per trade"
},
"kelly_fraction_percent": {
"type": "number",
"description": "Kelly criterion bet size as a percent of capital"
},
"breakeven_win_rate_percent": {
"type": "number",
"description": "Win rate needed to break even at this payoff"
},
"expected_profit_over_trades": {
"type": "number",
"description": "Expectancy times the number of trades"
},
"expected_longest_losing_streak": {
"type": [
"number",
"null"
],
"description": "Approximate longest losing streak over the projected trades"
},
"probability_of_5_losses_in_a_row_percent": {
"type": "number",
"description": "Chance that any given run of five trades all lose"
}
}
}
}
}
}
}
}
}Provenance
- Seen in the source catalog
- 2026-10-26 03:31Z
- Last indexed by Roundhouse
- 2026-10-26 20:15Z
- Last enriched (probe, favicon, geo)
- —
- x402 version
- 2
- Max timeout
- 120s
- Liveness probe
- Not probed
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Copy the prompt and paste it into Claude, an MCP client or your own agent — it will vet this service and call it over the free read API. No key, no account.
GET api.roundhouseai.io/v0/endpoints
This endpoint's own trailing-30-day call count, as published by the upstream catalog and snapshotted daily. 9 snapshots so far. Verified volume counts only settlements with an on-chain EIP-3009 marker.
Show the promptHide the prompt
Using Roundhouse, look up the x402 service Saylor Innovations Data Desk and tell me whether it is worth paying: what a call costs, whether the endpoint answered when last probed, and what its payment record actually shows. curl -s 'https://api.roundhouseai.io/v0/endpoints?q=Saylor%20Innovations%20Data%20Desk' curl -s 'https://api.roundhouseai.io/v0/merchants/<the payTo wallet returned above>' Then call it: read the price from the live 402 at https://saylorinnovations.com/api/trading/expectancy, never from a cached figure, and pay with an x402 client. The /v0 API needs an API key (`authorization: Bearer rh_live_…`) on everything except /v0/unified* and /v0/endpoints. Either pay over x402 (mint a personal key for $0.01 at GET https://api.roundhouseai.io/v0/test/x402), or ask me for an organization key, which I create at https://roundhouseai.io/dashboard/connections. If you have neither, ask before going further. If you do not have Roundhouse tools or skills installed, read https://roundhouseai.io/skill.md first — it is the whole procedure.